In every Mozambican election, the ruling party (Frelimo) won, and the opposition cried fraud. Can we tell who really won? Teams of up to 150 journalists, organized by Joe Hanlon, covered the elections across the country and reported that fraud and misconduct did occur. But did it change the outcome? Mozambique reports results from each polling station (each with fewer than 1000 voters) which allows statistical analysis for ballot box stuffing, invalidating opposition votes, and other misconduct. Johan Ahlback and Joseph Hanlon discuss this unique project to put the journalists and statisticians together – and test the official outcome of five presidential elections.
About the speakers:
Johan Ahlback is a PhD student in the LSE Government Department who is undertaking statistical analysis of Mozambique elections.
Joseph Hanlon is a visiting fellow in the LSE International Development Department who has organized reporting on all Mozambique’s elections.